Case Study: Ricardo Strategic Consulting developed a technology adoption model to comprehend commercialization potential of ZEVs

Case Study: Ricardo Strategic Consulting developed a technology adoption model to comprehend commercialization potential of ZEVs

Challenge

Southern California has several unique challenges around its future transportation industry due to ozone attainment targets in 2023 and 2032, as well as vision for reducing greenhouse gas levels to 80% of 1990 levels by 2050. These goals require deployment of near-zero or zero tailpipe emissions technologies to meet short term air quality requirements while also providing a route to significant
well-to-wheels GHG reductions in the longer term.  Several candidate technologies exist, but their specific impacts in key vehicle vocations and means of accelerating market adoption needs to be understood.

Approach

  • Identify key near-zero / zero-emission technologies and commercial vehicle vocations for the study
  • Assess current and future economic viability of competing technologies with TCO and payback analysis
  • Develop an adoption rate model for technology penetration in commercial vocations based on fleet purchase decision methodology
  • Collect stakeholder inputs through interviews and surveys and develop an industry consensus
  • Identify impact of non-technical and non-economic drivers

Recommendation 

  • Actionable roadmap for the adoption of commercial vehicle technologies for reduced NOx and greenhouse gas emissions in the SCAQMD
  • Barriers and enablers to adoption of near-zero and zero-emission technologies
  • Impact of economic drivers, policy and non-economic factors on new technology adoption
  • Technology readiness and commercial viability

Results

Quantitative impact on emission roadmap based on different scenarios of low/zero-emission vehicle rollout.

Guide future policies by identifying relevant technologies with the likelihood of success in key commercial vehicle vocations.